2010 Hottest Year Ever?
November 13, 2010Posted by on
2010 is coming to a close at the end of this month, at least in a meteorological sense. You see for meteorological purposes the year ends at the end of November instead of December because December is the starting month for the winter season. So how is 2010 shaping up? Well according to most of the analysis 2010 will not be the Hottest Year on Record.
Here in Figure 1 we see the monthly anomalies for each of the analysis datasets. The reason it only goes back to 1979 is for two reasons, the first being 1979 is as far back as you can go for the satellite datasets and that for all of the datasets they have the Hottest Year on Record after 1979. As can be clearly seen the only dataset that has 2010 as the possible record year is the GISS analysis.
So lets zoom the focus in on the record:
The reason to go from 1998 here in Figure 2 is that 1998 is the earliest Hottest Year of Record for any of the datasets. Also take note that even though the datasets use different baselines the analysis are remarkably close in 1998, however they diverge the next year. Now from there you can see how in the Satellite records the Hottest Year has been 1998, in Hadcrut it looks the same and possibly also NCDC. GISS is the only record I know that has 2005 as the Hottest Year on Record and that is due to the fact they have the monthly anomalies for 2005 stay high for the entire year, unlike 1998, 2002 and 2007 where they have a spike followed by a sharp drop in temperatures. So that brings us to 2010, will it be like 1998, 2002 and 2007 where you get the sharp increase followed by a decrease or would it be like 2005 where the temperatures anomalies increase and basically stay elevated all year?
Here in Figure 3 we have 2010 just by itself and there is a couple of things of note.
1. NCDC and HadCrut have not updated since September yet, where as RSS, UAH and GISS have.
2. GISS is the only dataset that shows an increase in the anomaly since July 2010, all the other ones show decreases with both RSS and UAH both showing a sharp drop in October.
Funny how NCDC shows a drop of about .15°C, HadCrut -.125°C, RSS -.3°C and UAH has a drop of about -.025°C since July and with RSS and UAH both showing large drop offs in the last month all the while GISS shows an increase of about .2°C. Of course GISS is the only one to pass off that they “know” what the temperatures are in the Arctic.
Here is the links to each Dataset: