East Coast Summer
October 3, 2010Posted by on
In my last post we had the West Coast, now it’s time for the East Coast. Again the stations selected were based on being from the late 1800’s through the summer of 2010, to include both coastal and inland stations, rural and urban. First I will work from North to South with the Coastal stations, then do the same with Inland ones.
Here in Figure 1 we see that 2010 was a record breaking summer with the summer mean being over 2.25° C over the average. When you look at this record you see regular ups and downs with a steady rise over time.
Here in Figure 2 we see again that 2010 was a record breaking summer with the mean being over 2° C over the average. This record is very similar to Figure 1 with what looks to be regular ups and down on top of a steady rise.
Here in Figure 3 we see that the 2010 summer at least tied or was close to being a record. Again the record is similar to the previous two with a steady rise.
In Figure 4 we see that the 2010 summer was not a record year, but is on the high side. This record has more of a sine wave shape to it then the previous ones.
In Figure 5 we see that the summer of 2010 was not a record, that goes to that huge spike in 1998, but was still the second highest and well above average. Now this record is interesting for the fact that if you take out the two big El Nino years of 1998 and 2010 this record has been pretty much very close to average, with the extremes on both above and below very close to each in magnitude.
In Figure 6 we again get a record summer for 2010. Again whats interesting with this chart is similar to the Charleston chart, but here 2010 is only one way outside compared to the entire record.
In Figure 7 we again get a record summer for 2010, however it is also very similar to the station in Figure 5. Here since 1975 the temps ave been running above average but basically with what looks to be a flat trend if you take 1998 and 2010 out and when you look overall the above average temps since 1975 are about as comparable to what was seen below average prior to 1975.
In Figure 8 we see 2010 looks to be tied with 1998 at number one for summer mean temp. This record also goes back to what we saw in the first couple of records: a steady rise over time instead of a couple of huge abnormal years.
So over all in the 8 coastal records looked at 2010 was a record year in 6 of them with it being #2 in 1 of the other two. However in some of the station records 2010 was a huge outlier compared to the history of the record, and in others more of a natural looking progression.
Now lets go to the inland stations.
Here in Figure 9 we see that 2010 was not a record year, matter of fact while above average it was basically nothing out of the norm especially for the last 20 some odd years.
In Figure 10 again we see that while 2010 was above average it was not close to being a record and nothing out of the ordinary.
Figure 11 is an interesting station record. You got the huge outlier in 1890 that keeps 2010 from being a record year and it makes 2010 look less then it actually is in the record. Outside of 1890 and 2010 you only get two other years that break the 1.25° C above average mark out of 115 years and only 3 others that meet or exceed 1° C above average. Clearly 2010 was way outside the box for this station at almost 1.75° C above average.
In Figure 12 we see that 2010 was far and away the hottest summer in this stations history, well over a 1° C over the previous record set in 2007. However with that all said this graph looks like a Michael Mann Hockeystick graph the way 2010 just shoots up like that. Prior to 2010 you see a steady increase from below average in the 1960’s to where things stood for 2007 through 2009 then bam. Also prior to the record of 2010 you see a cyclic pattern of below to above average.
In Figure 13 we see again that 2010 was a record year, but unlike Figure 11 it isn’t that spectacular compared to the history of that station.
Figure 14 shows 2010 was #2 for this station, however the changes through the history of the station are interesting. Prior to the 1960’s things fluctuated pretty much around the average temp, then from 1961 to about 1976 things stayed below average. After 1976 you had a huge spike in 1980 then things got back to around average followed by another spike in 1993, back to about average, another spike in 2007, going back almost average then the 2010 spike.
In Figure 15 we see that 2010 was about the 4th warmest summer, however except for the record year of 1998 and 1981 no year has gotten above 1° C over average. What you see is that things here look to be steadily cycling on a steady rising average with some higher and lower excursions.
So lets recap the Inland stations: Of the 7 stations 2 were record summers with one more were it was #2 and out of the ordinary, the other 4 stations 2010 was not that different from what has been experienced before.
The over all numbers look like this: 15 stations checked with 2010 being the hottest summer in 8 of them (the majority being coastal stations), 2 stations where it was #2 and the other 5 stations 2010 was not out of the ordinary for those areas. However there is some things to take away from these records IMHO.
1. For the record temps to be “consistent with” “Global Warming/Climate Change” you would expect to see what you see in Figures 1 through 3, 8 and 15: A record that shows a steady rise in temps. What you see in Figures 5 and 11 especially shows basically temps staying near average except when you get a natural event like El Nino so would not be “consistent with” “Global Warming Theory”.
2. Tying into the second part of point 1 the majority of the record summers came from the coastal stations where they were near the record SST’s due to the 2010 El Nino.
3. We saw record highs on one coast and record lows on the other, so it looks like we should be looking at things more regionally as Dr. Pielke Sr. supports.