Monthly Archives: January 2010

Finally! The Newly Revised and Edited ClimateGate Timeline (1.1) « JoNova

 

Glimategate timeline poster

 

For those that downloaded the original there is now an updated ClimateGate Timeline graph that on first blush looks to have update information as well as a better presentation. So if you want to upgrade or missed it the first time head on over to this site from down under and get a copy.

Finally! The Newly Revised and Edited ClimateGate Timeline (1.1) « JoNova.

Will The Real Temperature Please Stand Up!

Many a moon ago (just last November) I finally decided to look at some temperature records myself. For many years due to what I learned at Naval Nuclear Power School I had some serious reservations about the “science” behind CAGW, but never looked. Well along came Climategate and all that and finally I went and taught myself how to use the spreadsheet program in Open Office and started looking. Well the first question was were to start looking and for a beginner to keep it simple. So I found the NASA GISS site and decided to get the data for State College Pa. The reason I picked that locale was fairly simple: It’s a University that maintains a station in the NASA Station list, and it being a University you could reasonably expect that it should have a good record that would require little QC on it. On top of that I knew the area due togrowing up not too far away. So I got the data, I looked up to see where the thermometers are located, I found that there had been a station move  (from a grassy area to the roof of a building) but nothing too major. So the GISS adjusted data shouldn’t have needed a lot of work right? Right? WRONG! Here is the graph of what I found when I compared the input data (“raw”) to the adjusted out put data:

So that left me scratching my head. How can you go from a cooling trend to a warming trend? I could see no reason for such a radical adjustment. Thats when I noticed that GISS doesn’t really use “raw” data. They use data from two different databases, one called GHCN and the the other USHCN. GHCN has a few US stations (including State College) and the data from stations from all over the world. USHCN has the data from over 1200 US stations (including State College). So I decided to take a look at GHCN “raw” and adjusted to see if either one looked like the input to GISS. Well I noticed a few things right off the bat. One there was data from before the GISS start date, but that isn’t a real big problem. Second there was no data after 2005 in GHCN for State College. Thats a problem because GISS has data for 2006 to 2008, so I assumed the data has to come from USHCN. So I went and got the USHCN data and looked. Well it has the same start date as the GISS data and it has the data from 2006 to 2008, but there was a problem here as well: missing data. From 1973 to 75 there is no data, same for the years 84, 91 and 2000. So I decided to plot them all together and this is what I got:

Argh not a one matches the GISS “raw” data completely. There is one more USHCN dataset for me to try but the thing is the file hasn’t been updated since June of 2009, where as the USHCN “raw” and TOB’s adjusted datasets are up to Dec 2009. The funny thing is GHCN and USHCN are both managed by the same agency: The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). You would think that the data in one set would match the other, but they don’t. Then I found another database maintained by the NCDC that has PDF files of the original paper work turned in by the station (presumably) in those databases. I have started to transcribe them into the spreadsheet but it is slow going (got about 80 years worth of data to go) however here is how it compares to GHCN and USHCN “raw” for the years I do have in (Note some of the years are back at 1895 and others are at 2008 going in the other direction):

What you thought it would match one of the raw datasets? Get real this is climate science where things are murky.

GISS/UAH comparison ending 2009

Here is a comparison Graph between UAH and GISS using the 1979 – 98 “normal” period.

IPCC Uses Student Dissertation For Masters Degree As Proof of Climate Change

An article in the UK Telegraph states that the UN IPCC used a students Master Degree level dissertation and anecdotal evidence from a popular climbers magazine as proof that there is reduced ice in the Andes, Alps and in Africa due to AGW:

In its most recent report, it stated that observed reductions in mountain ice in the Andes, Alps and Africa was being caused by global warming, citing two papers as the source of the information.

However, it can be revealed that one of the sources quoted was a feature article published in a popular magazine for climbers which was based on anecdotal evidence from mountaineers about the changes they were witnessing on the mountainsides around them.

The other was a dissertation written by a geography student, studying for the equivalent of a master’s degree, at the University of Berne in Switzerland that quoted interviews with mountain guides in the Alps.

I wonder what the IPCC was planning to use as evidence in the 5th assessment report? Probably graphs made by little Johnnie in 4th grade art class.

For the rest of the article see:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/7111525/UN-climate-change-panel-based-claims-on-student-dissertation-and-magazine-article.html

CRUTEM 3 changes

Seems that the there has been some changes made to the CRUTEM3 dataset and I’m not just talking about an update. According to the UK Met Office:

In the latest update of CRUTEM3 we have made a number of corrections to the station level data on which the gridded product is based. The map below shows the locations of station data (grey dots) and highlights those that have been changed (coloured dots). Any subsequent changes will be similarly documented and we continue to welcome feedback.

Now where exactly are these stations and how many?

 

As shown by this map there is a fair number of stations in the Australia, New Zealand and the US that got changed.

What was the reasons:

Normals for stations in Australia and New Zealand (green dots)

112 stations (29% of the total) in WMO regions 93, 94 and 95 – principally Australia and New Zealand – had temperature normals that were not equal to the average of the data for the station over the period 1961-1990. This happened because the station data were updated giving a more complete coverage of data, but the normals, which should have been calculated at the same time, were not. New normals and standard deviations were calculated from the station data. The list of stations with new normals and standard deviations is here.

Standard deviations (green dots)

During construction of the data set, standard deviations for each station were calculated using data from the period 1941-1990. At least 16 years of data were required in this period to calculate a standard deviation. Seven stations had only 15 years of data in the period 1941-1990, so were not previously included in the analysis. These stations have normals (for which only 15 years of data are required in the calculation), but the absence of standard deviations meant that they were being excluded from the analysis. New standard deviations were calculated from the seven stations and they are now included in the analysis. A list of stations with new normals and standard deviations is here.

Additional stations in the US (blue dots)

A number of COOP-network stations in the US had been assigned ID numbers in the CRUTEM database that were not unique. This meant that some station records were accidentally combined in the CRUTEM3 analysis: as a result many of the observations for these stations were unused, and some observations were assigned to the wrong stations. Each station has now been given a unique identifier and all these station records are now correctly included in the analysis. This affects 121 out of almost 1500 US stations, i.e. around 8% of the densely sampled US network. A list of stations which have been assigned new IDs is here.

Re-cycled Canadian station ID (blue dot in eastern Canada)

One Canadian station identifier (718260) was being used to identify two stations: one that is currently reporting and one, in a different location, that has now closed. The data from the currently reporting station was being appended to the station data file of the closed station. The difference in location of the two stations and the consequent difference in average temperature lead to an inhomogeneity in the station record. Data from after the closure of the original station were removed from the station data file.

Incorrect latitude and longitude values (red dots)

15 stations had incorrect position information: one Antarctic station and fourteen Pacific islands that were close to the date line. The locations were corrected. A list of the stations which had incorrect locations and the changes is here.

Missing minus sign: Baruunturuun, Mongolia

The December 1994 reading for station 442130 (Baruunturuun, Mongolia) was missing a minus sign. This was corrected.

The effects of the changes

The following diagrams show annual average temperature anomalies for six different regions. In each case the old version of CRUTEM3 is shown in black and the blue area indicates the 95% uncertainty range. The red line shows the average from the corrected CRUTEM3 data.

The corrections made have minimal impact on changes at the largest scales. Even in the two regions most affected by the changes the United States and Australasia – the impact is only discernible in the nineteenth century when there are few stations and the published uncertainties are largest. The new version falls within the stated 95% confidence limits of the old version much more than 95% of the time.

Various other diagnostic plots are produced for CRUTEM3 as a matter of course. Archived versions of the plots from December 2009 are here.

Various other diagnostic plots are produced for HadCRUT3 as a matter of course. Archived versions of the plots from December 2009 are here.

For the Graphs go to the Hadley site:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/crutem3/jan_2010_update.html

Peta Protests Phil

Most of us have in one way or another heard of Punxsutawney Phil the Ground Hog that shows up every Feb 2 to tell us his forecast to the end of winter. Well PETA in an amazing coincidence that would have nothing to do with the upcomming Groundhog day is protesting the ceremony seen each year in little Punxsutawney Pa.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10027/1031375-100.stm?cmpid=MOSTEMAILEDBOX#ixzz0dy2kX0rW

After Feb 2 PETA gives less then a crap about the rodent (Yes a Ground hog is a rodent) but for right now PETA is trying to use Phil for their own disgusting ends. If anyone happens to stumble upon this new blog and read this and think PETA isn’t that bad, think again. PETA has one of the worst records for animal cruelty on the planet, just go and check out what they do to “rescued dogs”.

PETA’s “Animal Record” report for 2008, filed with the Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services, shows that the animal rights group killed 95 percent of the dogs and cats in its care last year.  During all of 2008, PETA found adoptive homes for just seven pets.

http://www.petakillsanimals.com/

 As to Phil that rodent lives like a King.  He lives in a climate controlled encloser, doesn’t have to worry where his next meal is comming from and never has to worry about predators eating him. This Groundhog has lived this way all his life, he knows nothing else. If he was released into the wild , the way PETA wants, he would be dead within a week.  Now that would be cruel and it shows how stupid the people in PETA really are.

Able To Leap Tall Snow Drifts In A Single Bound!

One of my favorite sites to visit is run by a Canadian lady that wields a mean paint gun and has a wicked sense of humor. Well she found this nice little snow blower in Popular Science:

I wonder how long it would take to do my 10ft walkway when we get our average 2-3 inch snow storms.

The name of the site is Small Dead Animals: The Road Kill Diaries.

Hello world!

Well I decide what the hell, it’s free and it is someplace to put my ramblings on.

First Rambling: Digital Rights Managment (DRM) or as I prefer how to rent what you bought. DRM to me is one dumb idea for electronic media for the simple fact you piss off your customers by:

 First by assuming the customers are nothing more then thieves that would steal the thing if they didn’t put more encryption on it then the nuclear release codes.

Secondly telling them what they can and cannot do with something they bought, up to and including taking it away (If you don’t know Google Kindle + Orwell +1984).

Thats why when I do get e books they are completely DRM free. While it does tend to narrow choices somewhat in the present, but dammit it’s the principle of the thing so my stance is I can live with fewer choices until such time as the rest of the publishing world relents (I think I can outlast them 🙂 ). So basically I’m forced to read Baen Books (ok its not really that forced since I love the 1632 series and the Honorverse) which do not put DRM on any of the books they E publish. Hell they even give away e-books for free.  Yes I did write FREE.

I know what you must be thinking “There has to be a catch!”

Well there is and the catch is that you will like the free books so much you will run out and buy all the rest in the series. So far they have been right, I started out  reading just the free ones. In the last couple of months I bought the Hard Cover of Storm from the Shadows, the E-book Torch of Freedom, the hard cover of Eye of the Storm and a couple of paperbacks. That totals over $100 and I forgot what Heinlein said.

If you want to try the crack err free books out for yourself mosey on over to the Baen Free Library: http://www.baen.com/library/.

But keep in mind what Heinlein wrote:

TANSTAAFL.

Some times the best stories don’t get published (at least thats my opinion)

I have found that there are many a fine author of fiction, science fiction and fantasy that just post stories on the Internet for free. Some people might not like some of the stuff in the stories but to each his own. In this post I will point you towards one such writer of fiction. Btw there is no gore and no sex every third page in this authors writings, just very interesting characters living in a small town in the middle of nowhere USA. Basically think of Twin Peaks but without the whole FBI guy and dead girl thing going on.

The Authors name is Wes Boyd and the stories he writes are called the Spearfish Lake Tales and can be found here:

http://www.spearfishlaketales.com/

Word of warning the story that he is currently posting you won’t really understand until you go back and basically read the first 12 books. Yes I said 12 but don’t despair the book are typically between 30 and 40 chapters only and they are very good reads. Here are the descriptions from my two favorites:

A snake crawls out of a bathroom drain, and a woman kills it with her hair dryer . . . That’s all it takes to set townspeople, media, crooked environmentalists, a country music singer, the federal government and a bunch of dogsledders to getting at each other’s throats. Of course, nothing’s quite normal in Spearfish Lake!

The blonde jogger wore handcuffs! Brenda Hodunk couldn’t believe the sight before her eyes as she jogged down Lakefront Drive. Her new job had already taught her that Spearfish Lake was a little different, but this was a little more different than she had expected. Yet her natural reporter’s instinct smelled story, and she decided she needed to know more about what she’d seen — and it leads her to places and things she never would have believed.